July 2026 Statewide Survey: Montana's U.S. Senate Race
A new statewide Independent Center Voice & Independent Leadership Council survey finds Republican Kurt Alme leading Montana's open U.S. Senate race, with independent Seth Bodnar narrowly outperforming the Democratic candidate for second place.
A statewide survey finds Republican Kurt Alme leading a competitive three-way U.S. Senate contest, with independent Seth Bodnar edging out the Democratic candidate for second place.
The Big Picture
A benchmark survey of 793 likely Montana voters finds Republican Kurt Alme leading the state's open U.S. Senate race, but with independent Seth Bodnar narrowly outperforming Democrat Alani Bankhead for second. With 17% of voters still undecided and Montanans expressing broad frustration with Washington, the race remains fluid heading into the fall.
Zooming In
A Competitive Three-Way Field
Alme leads with 36% support, followed by Bodnar at 24% and Bankhead at 22%. Alme's supporters are the most locked-in of the field: 74% say they're definitely supporting him, compared with 59% for Bankhead and 52% for Bodnar.
Montana's electorate leans Republican, with 43% identifying as Republican versus 27% Democrat and 29% independent, and Donald Trump's approval rating sits at 46%. Even so, 58% of voters would prefer a senator who doesn't caucus with either major party, and 65% say electing more independents could provide a stabilizing, bipartisan voice in Washington.
Distrust of Institutions
Just 23% of Montanans approve of Congress's performance, and 74% rate the health of American democracy as unhealthy.
Data Snapshot
Party identification: 43% Republican, 29% independent, 27% Democrat
With nearly one in five Montana voters undecided and independents expressing strong demand for cross-partisan representation, Bodnar's ability to consolidate that sentiment could determine whether the race truly becomes a three-way contest through November.
