A new Independent Center Voice & Independent Leadership Council survey of Alaska's at-large House race finds independents make up the largest voting bloc and could swing the outcome once ranked-choice ballots are tallied.
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A new statewide survey finds Alaska's at-large House race wide open, with independent voters positioned to decide the outcome under the state's ranked-choice system.
New polling of 546 likely Alaska voters shows a genuinely competitive at-large House race, with no candidate close to a first-round majority. Independent voters make up 61% of the electorate, by far the largest share, and their second-choice preferences could prove decisive under ranked-choice voting. With trust in Washington near historic lows, the survey suggests Alaskans are eager for representation that puts problem-solving ahead of party loyalty.
In first-choice votes, Republican Nick Begich leads with 46%, followed by Democrat Matt Schultz at 32% and independent Bill Hill at 20%. Ranked-choice voting rewards broad appeal, though: when second-choice votes are counted, Hill picks up 59% support, far outpacing his rivals, suggesting many voters see him as an acceptable alternative even when he isn't their first pick.
Alaskans overwhelmingly say elected officials in Washington could be doing better (94%), and 78% describe the health of American democracy as unhealthy. Just 20% approve of Congress's job performance. That frustration cuts across party lines and helps explain why 54% of voters said they'd prefer a representative who doesn't caucus with either major party.
A politician described as willing to work with both sides of the aisle earns 80% favorability in the survey, among the highest ratings tested, well above either major party (35% and 38% favorable, respectively).
With independents forming the state's largest voting bloc and ranked-choice voting rewarding broad coalitions, Alaska's at-large race is a test case for whether cross-partisan appeal can compete with straight-ticket loyalty. Voters can follow ICV's Election 2026 hub for updates as the August 18 top-four primary and ballot certification proceed.
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