July 2026 District Survey: California's 6th Congressional District
A new Independent Center Voice & Independent Leadership Council survey of California's 6th Congressional District finds independent Kevin Kiley trailing Democrat Richard Pan by just four points, with more than a quarter of voters undecided.
A new district survey finds Kevin Kiley trailing Democrat Richard Pan by just four points, with more than a quarter of voters still undecided.
The Big Picture
A benchmark survey of 741 likely voters in California's 6th Congressional District shows a competitive race between independent Kevin Kiley and Democrat Richard Pan, with Kiley's supporters showing notably strong intensity. Although registered Democrats outnumber independents and Republicans in the district, voters across the spectrum expressed deep frustration with Washington and broad appeal for candidates who reject party-line voting.
Zooming In
A Close Contest with Room to Move
If the election were held today, Pan leads Kiley 39% to 35%, with 26% of voters unsure. Kiley's current supporters are especially committed: 70% say they're definitely supporting him, compared with 63% of Pan's backers.
Frustration with Both Parties
Just 18% of district voters approve of Congress's performance, while 76% disapprove. Favorability for the Republican and Democratic parties sits at 37% and 44%, respectively, well below the 83% favorability rating for a politician willing to work with both sides of the aisle.
An Electorate Open to Independents
Fifty-nine percent of voters say they'd prefer a House member who doesn't caucus with either major party, compared with 25% who favor exclusive party alignment. A politically independent candidate earns 61% favorability district-wide.
Data Snapshot
Party identification: 39% Democrat, 30% Republican, 29% independent
Congressional ballot: Pan (D) 39%, Kiley (I) 35%, unsure 26%
Strength of support: Kiley 70% definitely supporting, Pan 63%
With more than a quarter of CA-06 voters still undecided and independent-minded messaging resonating broadly, the district's final result may hinge on which candidate best channels voters' desire for accountability over party loyalty.
